Nick,

I hope you like bar graphs.

I thought we did a pretty good job with our predictions, but as it turns out, maybe we don’t deserve that much credit. Despite Pitchfork’s reputation for being deliberately contrarian, the site is actually fairly predictable.

I collected all of the data from Pitchfork’s Best New Music picks since 2003 (the year site started handing out that label). Over the past eight years, the site has been consistent with the number of BNM picks per year and how many show up on the their 50 Best Albums lists.

I also suspected that albums were more likely to be BNM’d during the summer and late fall. I was close, with the big months being May and September. It’s likely that the biggest albums are released in late spring to ramp up toward the festival season, as well as September, since a lot of bands tour heavily in October in November.

I compared the average score of those bestowed with the Best New Music label by year. The trend is leaning toward lower and lower scores still garnering BNM over the years, but it’s only a trend of one tenths place difference. So not much to write home about.

And last, for funsies, I checked out the distribution of scores among BNM albums. Again, surprisingly consistent, with most albums in the 8.2 to 8.8 range. The distribution is scarily bell curve-like.

So there. If you (or other readers) are interested, here’s the link to the Google spreadsheet with all of the Best New Music data I collected. Feel free to toy around with the data.

So Kevin,

Pitchfork posted their top 20 today. I’m gonna give us both credit for being pretty close with our predictions.

But the real reason we’re talking about their list is because you noticed that in past years there were some interesting discrepancies between the score they gave an album upon its release, whether it was granted the illustrious distinction of “Best New Music,” and then where it landed on their year-end best albums list. Since Pitchfork speaks with such a loud voice in this relatively small cultural scene, it seemed worth looking into that further. So here are some figures from this year.

First up, here’s their Best Albums of 2010 list, along with review scores for each album and whether it was given Best New Music (BNM):

50. Wavves – King of the Beach – 8.4 – BNM
49. Wild Nothing – Gemini – 8.2 – BNM
48. Forest Swords – Dagger Paths – 7.9
47. Women – Public Strain – 8.0
46. Matthew Dear – Black City – 8.4 – BNM
45. Gil Scott-Heron – I’m New Here – 8.5 – BNM
44. Kylesa – Spiral Shadow – 8.4
43. Tame Impala – Innerspeaker – 8.5 – BNM
42. Drake – Thank Me Later – 8.4
41. Delorean – Subiza – 8.4 – BNM
40. Abe Vigoda – Crush – 7.8
39. Best Coast – Crazy For You – 8.4 – BNM
38. Rick Ross – Teflon Don – 8.0
37. Zola Jesus – Stridulum EP – 8.1
36. Emeralds – Does It Look Like I’m Here? – 8.3
35. Gorillaz – Plastic Beach – 8.5 – BNM
34. Crystal Castles – Crystal Castles – 8.5 – BNM
33. The Tallest Man on Earth – The Wild Hunt – 8.5 – BNM
32. Tyler, the Creator – Bastard – Not reviewed
31. Woods – At Echo Lake – 8.0
30. The-Dream – Love King – 8.6 – BNM
29. The Fresh & Onlys – Play It Strange – 8.0
28. The National – High Violet – 8.7 – BNM
27. Four Tet – There Is Love in You – 8.6 – BNM
26. Twin Shadow – Forget – 8.4
25. Sufjan Stevens – The Age of Adz – 8.4 – BNM
24. Hot Chip – One Life Stand – 8.4 – BNM
23. Das Racist – Sit Down, Man – 8.7 – BNM
22. Girls – Broken Dreams Club EP – 8.7 – BNM
21. The Walkmen – Lisbon – 8.6 – BNM
20. Oneohtrix Point Never – Returnal – 8.2
19. How to Dress Well – Love Remains – 8.7 – BNM
18. Erykah Badu – New Amerykah Part Two: Return of the Ankh – 8.0
17. Caribou – Swim – 8.4 – BNM
16. Sleigh Bells – Treats – 8.7 – BNM
15. Robyn – Body Talk – 8.7 – BNM
14. Flying Lotus – Cosmogramma – 8.8 – BNM
13. No Age – Everything In Between – 8.8 – BNM
12. Janelle Monae – The ArchAndroid – 8.5 – BNM
11. Arcade Fire – The Suburbs – 8.6 – BNM
10. Titus Andronicus – The Monitor – 8.7 – BNM
09. Ariel Pink’s Haunted Graffiti – Before Today – 9.0 – BNM
08. James Blake – The Bells Sketch EP / CMYK EP / Klavierwerke EP – 8.3 – BNM
07. Joanna Newsom – Have One on Me – 9.2 – BNM
06. Vampire Weekend – Contra – 8.6 – BNM
05. Beach House – Teen Dream – 9.0 – BNM
04. Big Boi – Sir Lucious Left Foot: The Son of Chico Dusty – 9.2 – BNM
03. Deerhunter – Halcyon Digest – 9.2 – BNM
02. LCD Soundsystem – This Is Happening – 9.2 – BNM
01. Kanye West – My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy – 10.0 – BNM

Then we’ve got albums that were given Best New Music in 2010 but did not place in the top 50. Interestingly, 15 of these 17 are from the first half of the year:

OFF! - First Four EPs
Curren$y - Pilot Talk
ceo - White Magic
Julian Lynch - Mare
Male Bonding - Nothing Hurts
Broken Social Scene - Forgiveness Rock Record
The Radio Dept. - Clinging to a Scheme
The Morning Benders - Big Echo
Fang Island - Fang Island
Liars - Sisterworld
Gonjasufi - A Sufi and a Killer
Local Natives - Gorilla Manor
Gil Scott-Heron - I’m New Here
Charlotte Gainsbourg - IRM
Surfer Blood - Astro Coast
Owen Pallett - Heartland

And finally, we’ve pulled out the albums in the top 50 that did not get Best New Music:

Forest Swords - Dagger Paths
Women - Public Strain
Kylesa - Spiral Shadow
Drake - Thank Me Later
Abe Vigoda - Crush
Rick Ross - Teflon Don
Zola Jesus - Stridulum EP
Tyler, the Creator - Bastard
Woods - At Echo Lake
The Fresh & Onlys - Play It Strange
Oneohtrix Point Never – Returnal
Erykah Badu – New Amerykah Part Two: Return of the Ankh

So it seems that there was a pretty strong level of consistency between Pitchfork’s various metrics this year, but I wonder, how does that compare to their lists from previous years?

Nick,

My predictions are essential the same as yours, but re-arranged.

  1. Kanye West - My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy
  2. Deerhunter - Halcyon Digest
  3. The Arcade Fire - The Suburbs
  4. Janelle Monae - The ArchAndroid
  5. Beach House - Teen Dream
  6. LCD Soundsystem - This is Happening
  7. Ariel Pink’s Haunted Graffiti - Before Today
  8. Joanna Newsom - Have One on Me
  9. Owen Pallet - Heartland
  10. Sleigh Bells - Treats

But I’d also say that Robyn and Big Boi are likely 11 and 12. (This sort of looks like the average of our best albums list.)

Okay Kevin,

My Guesses for p4k’s top 10:

1. Kanye West - My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy
2. LCD Soundsystem - This is Happening
3. Joanna Newsom - Have One on Me
4. Big Boi - Sir Lucious Left Foot
5. Ariel Pink - Before Today
6. Deerhunter - Halcyon Digest
7. Robyn - Body Talk
8. Arcade Fire - The Suburbs
9. Beach House - Teen Dream
10. Janelle Monae - The ArchAndroid

Hey Nick (Martens),

Pitchfork is running their year-end lists this week. They’ve already posted their favorite songs (Ariel Pink, not much of a shocker), and this Thursday and Friday they’ll list the year’s best albums. So before we get into a discussion of year-end lists, the influence of Best New Music, and Pitchfork’s consistency throughout the year, I thought I’d ask: what are your predictions for Pitchfork’s top 10 albums?